Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Early rebleeding increases mortality of variecal bleeders on secondary prophylaxis with ß-blockers and ligation.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Despite secondary-prophylaxis with ß-blockers and endoscopic-variceal-ligation rebleeding is frequent, particularly within the first-6-weeks. Early-rebleeding may have greater impact on death-risk than late rebleeding, which may affect therapy. We assessed whether the influence of rebleeding on long-term survival of patients on secondary-prophylaxis is greater in patients with early-rebleeding. METHODS: 369 patients with cirrhosis were consecutively included once recovered from first variceal-bleeding. The impact of rebleeding on survival was investigated according to whether it occurred within 6-weeks (early-rebleeding) or later (late-rebleeding). RESULTS: During 46-months of follow-up (IQR: 14-61), 45 patients (12%) had early-rebleeding, 74(20%) had late-rebleeding and 250(68%) had not rebleeding. Mortality risk was higher in early-rebleeding group vs. late-rebleeding (HR = 0.476, 95%CI = 0.318-0.712, p < 0.001) and was similar in late-rebleeding group vs. no-rebleeding (HR = 0.902, 95%CI = 0.749-1.086, p = 0.271). Adjusting for baseline risk-factors, early-rebleeding was independently associated with mortality-risk (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.02-2.45; p = 0.04). Child-Pugh&MELD scores improved at 3rd-4th-week only in patients without early-rebleeding (p < 0.05). Presence of ascites or encephalopathy, MELD-score>12 and HVPG>20 mmHg identified patients at risk of early-rebleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with early-rebleeding have higher risk of death than patients without rebleeding and even than those rebleeding later. Our results suggest that patients at risk of early rebleeding might benefit from preemptive therapies such as early-TIPS.

Short-term hemodynamic effects of ß-blockers influence survival of patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether the effect of ß-blockers on arterial pressure and/or cardiac function may offset the benefit of reducing portal pressure in advanced cirrhosis is controversial. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the systemic and splanchnic hemodynamic effects of ß-blockers in decompensated vs. compensated cirrhosis and to investigate the influence of systemic hemodynamic changes on survival times in decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and high-risk esophageal varices, without previous bleeding, were consecutively included and grouped according to the presence or absence of decompensation (ascites with or without overt encephalopathy). Systemic and hepatic hemodynamic measurements were performed before starting ß-blockers and again after 1 to 3 months of treatment (short-term). RESULTS: Four hundred and three patients were included (190 decompensated and 213 compensated). At baseline, decompensated patients had higher portal pressure than compensated patients and were more hyperdynamic, with higher cardiac output (CO) and lower arterial pressure. Under ß-blockers, decompensated patients had lower portal pressure decrease (10 ± 18% vs. 15 ± 12%; p <0.05) and had greater reductions in heart rate (p <0.001) and CO (17 ± 15% vs. 10 ± 21%; p <0.01). Among patients with decompensated cirrhosis, those who died had a greater decrease in CO with ß-blockers than survivors (21 ± 14% vs. 15 ± 16%; p <0.05) and CO under ß-blockers independently predicted death by competing-risk regression analysis, with good diagnostic accuracy (C-index 0.74; 95% CI 0.66-0.83). Death risk was higher in decompensated patients with CO <5 L/min vs. CO ≥5 L/min (subdistribution hazard ratio 0.44; 95% CI 0.25-0.77; p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with high-risk varices treated to prevent first bleeding, the systemic hemodynamic response to ß-blockers is greater and the portal pressure decrease is smaller in those with decompensated cirrhosis. The short-term effect of ß-blockers on CO might adversely influence survival in decompensated cirrhosis. LAY SUMMARY: ß-blockers are often used to reduce the risk of variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. However, it is not known whether the effect of ß-blockers on arterial pressure and/or cardiac function may offset the benefit of reducing portal pressure. Herein, we show that in patients with decompensated cirrhosis the potentially detrimental systemic effects of ß-blockers are greater than in compensated patients, while the beneficial pressure lowering effects are reduced. The short-term effect of ß-blockers on cardiac output may adversely influence survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

A randomized trial to assess whether portal pressure guided therapy to prevent variceal rebleeding improves survival in cirrhosis.

Monitoring the hemodynamic response of portal pressure (PP) to drug therapy accurately stratifies the risk of variceal rebleeding (VRB). We assessed whether guiding therapy with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) monitoring may improve survival by preventing VRB. Patients with cirrhosis with controlled variceal bleeding were randomized to an HVPG-guided therapy group (N = 84) or to a control group (N = 86). In both groups, HVPG and acute ß-blocker response were evaluated at baseline and HVPG measurements were repeated at 2-4 weeks to determine chronic response. In the HVPG-guided group, acute responders were treated with nadolol and acute nonresponders with nadolol+nitrates. Chronic nonresponders received nadolol+prazosin and had a third HVPG study. Ligation sessions were repeated until response was achieved. The control group was treated with nadolol+nitrates+ligation. Between-group baseline characteristics were similar. During long-term follow-up (median of 24 months), mortality was lower in the HVPG-guided therapy group than in the control group (29% vs. 43%; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.35-0.99). Rebleeding occurred in 19% versus 31% of patients, respectively (HR = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.29-0.98), and further decompensation of cirrhosis occurred in 52% versus 72% (HR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.46-0.99). The survival probability was higher with HVPG-guided therapy than in controls, both in acute (HR = 0.59; 95% CI = 0.32-1.08) and chronic nonresponders (HR = 0.48; 95% CI = 0.23-0.99). HVPG-guided patients had a greater reduction of HVPG and a lower final value than controls (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: HVPG monitoring, by stratifying risk and targeting therapy, improves the survival achieved with currently recommended treatment to prevent VRB using ß-blockers and ligation. HVPG-guided therapy achieved a greater reduction in PP, which may have contributed to reduce the risk of rebleeding and of further decompensation of cirrhosis, thus contributing to a better survival. (Hepatology 2017;65:1693-1707).

Relative adrenal insufficiency in severe acute variceal and non-variceal bleeding: influence on outcomes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Relative adrenal insufficiency (RAI) is common in critical illness and in cirrhosis, and is related with worse outcomes. The prevalence of RAI may be different in variceal and non-variceal bleeding and whether it may influence outcomes in these settings is unclear. This study assesses RAI and its prognostic implications in cirrhosis with variceal bleeding and in peptic ulcer bleeding. METHODS: Patients with severe bleeding (systolic pressure <100 mmHg and/or haemoglobin <8 g/L) from oesophageal varices or from a peptic ulcer were included. Adrenal function was evaluated within the first 24 h and RAI was diagnosed as delta cortisol <250 nmol/L after 250 µg of i.v. corticotropin. RESULTS: Sixty-two patients were included, 36 had cirrhosis and variceal bleeding and 26 without cirrhosis had ulcer bleeding. Overall, 15 patients (24%) had RAI, 8 (22%) with variceal and 7 (24%) with ulcer bleeding. Patients with RAI had higher rate of bacterial infections. Baseline serum and salivary cortisol were higher in patients with RAI (P < 0.001) while delta cortisol was lower (P < 0.001). There was a good correlation between plasma and salivary cortisol (P < 0.001). The probability of 45-days survival without further bleeding was lower in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding and RAI than in those without RAI (25% vs 68%, P = 0.02), but not in non-cirrhotic patients with peptic ulcer bleeding with or without RAI (P = 0.75). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of RAI is similar in ulcer bleeding and in cirrhosis with variceal bleeding. Cirrhotic patients with RAI, but not those with bleeding ulcers, have worse prognosis.

Drugs plus ligation to prevent rebleeding in cirrhosis: an updated systematic review.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Combined therapy with endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) and ß-blockers ± isosorbide mononitrate (ISMN) is currently recommended to prevent variceal rebleeding. However, the role of this combined therapy has been challenged by some studies. We performed a systematic review to assess the value of combined therapy with EVL and ß-blockers ± ISMN as compared with each treatment alone to prevent rebleeding. METHODS: Databases, references and meeting abstracts were searched to retrieve randomized trials comparing combined therapy with EVL and ß-blockers ± ISMN vs either treatment alone, to prevent variceal rebleeding in cirrhosis. Random-effects model was used for meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified five studies comparing EVL alone or combined with drugs, including a total of 476 patients. Combination therapy reduced overall rebleeding [risk ratios (RR) = 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.28-0.69], and showed a trend towards lower mortality (RR = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.33-1.03), without increasing complications. We identified four trials comparing drugs alone or associated with EVL, including 409 patients. All used ß-blockers plus ISMN. Variceal rebleeding decreased with combined therapy (P < 0.01) but rebleeding from oesophageal ulcers increased (P = 0.01). Overall, there was a trend towards lower rebleeding (RR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.58-1.00) without effect on mortality (RR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.90-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of drug therapy to EVL improves the efficacy of EVL alone. However, the addition of EVL to ß-blockers and ISMN achieves a non-significant decrease of rebleeding with no effect on mortality. Although combination therapy with EVL plus ß-blockers ± ISMN is adequate to prevent rebleeding, ß-blockers + ISMN alone may be a valid alternative.

Transfusion strategies for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: The hemoglobin threshold for transfusion of red cells in patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding is controversial. We compared the efficacy and safety of a restrictive transfusion strategy with those of a liberal transfusion strategy. METHODS: We enrolled 921 patients with severe acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding and randomly assigned 461 of them to a restrictive strategy (transfusion when the hemoglobin level fell below 7 g per deciliter) and 460 to a liberal strategy (transfusion when the hemoglobin fell below 9 g per deciliter). Randomization was stratified according to the presence or absence of liver cirrhosis. RESULTS: A total of 225 patients assigned to the restrictive strategy (51%), as compared with 61 assigned to the liberal strategy (14%), did not receive transfusions (P<0.001) [corrected].The probability of survival at 6 weeks was higher in the restrictive-strategy group than in the liberal-strategy group (95% vs. 91%; hazard ratio for death with restrictive strategy, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33 to 0.92; P=0.02). Further bleeding occurred in 10% of the patients in the restrictive-strategy group as compared with 16% of the patients in the liberal-strategy group (P=0.01), and adverse events occurred in 40% as compared with 48% (P=0.02). The probability of survival was slightly higher with the restrictive strategy than with the liberal strategy in the subgroup of patients who had bleeding associated with a peptic ulcer (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.26 to 1.25) and was significantly higher in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis and Child-Pugh class A or B disease (hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.85), but not in those with cirrhosis and Child-Pugh class C disease (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.45 to 2.37). Within the first 5 days, the portal-pressure gradient increased significantly in patients assigned to the liberal strategy (P=0.03) but not in those assigned to the restrictive strategy. CONCLUSIONS: As compared with a liberal transfusion strategy, a restrictive strategy significantly improved outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. (Funded by Fundació Investigació Sant Pau; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00414713.).

Development of ascites in compensated cirrhosis with severe portal hypertension treated with ß-blockers.

OBJECTIVES: In compensated cirrhosis, a threshold value of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥10 mm Hg is required for the development of decompensation. However, whether the treatment of portal hypertension (PHT) can prevent the transition into development of ascites once this level has been reached is unclear. Our aim was to assess the relationship between changes in HVPG induced by ß-blockers and development of ascites in compensated cirrhosis with severe PHT. METHODS: Eighty-three patients without any previous decompensation of cirrhosis, with large esophageal varices and HVPG ≥12 mm Hg were included. After baseline hemodynamic measurements nadolol was administered and a second hemodynamic study was repeated 1-3 months later. RESULTS: During 53±30 months of follow-up, decompensation occurred in 52 patients (62%) and in 81% of them ascites was the first manifestation. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis a decrease in HVPG ≥10% was the best cutoff to predict ascites. As compared with nonresponders, patients with an HVPG decrease ≥10% had a lower probability of developing ascites (19% vs. 57% at 3 years, P<0.001), refractory ascites (P=0.007), and hepatorenal syndrome (P=0.027). By Cox regression analysis hemodynamic nonresponse was the best predictor of ascites. By stepwise logistic regression, development of ascites was independently associated with nonresponse, whereas refractory ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were not. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and large varices treated with ß-blockers, an HVPG decrease ≥10% significantly reduces the risk of developing ascitic decompensation and other related complications such as refractory ascites or hepatorenal syndrome.

Acute hemodynamic response to beta-blockers and prediction of long-term outcome in primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Studies of variceal bleeding have shown that a hemodynamic response to treatment of portal hypertension is appropriate when the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) decreases below 12 mmHg or by > 20% from baseline. However, in primary prophylaxis, many nonresponders do not bleed and 2 invasive procedures are needed to assess response. We investigated the long-term prognostic value of an acute response to beta-blockers and whether the target reduction in HVPG can be improved in primary prophylaxis. METHODS: An initial hemodynamic study was performed in patients with large varices and without previous bleeding. After baseline measurements were made, propranolol was administered intravenously and measurements were repeated 20 minutes later. Patients were given nadolol daily and a second hemodynamic study was performed. RESULTS: Of 105 patients, 15% had variceal bleeding. Using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a decrease of HVPG > or = 10% was the best value to predict bleeding. In the initial study, 75 patients (71%) were responders (HVPG decreased to < or = 12 mmHg or by > or = 10%) and had a lower probability of first bleeding than nonresponders (4% vs 46% at 24 months; P < .001). Acute responders also had a lower risk of developing ascites (P = .001). Chronic responders had a lower probability of bleeding than nonresponders (P < .001). There was a correlation between acute and chronic changes in HVPG (r = 0.62; P = .01). CONCLUSION: The acute hemodynamic response to beta-blockers can be used to predict the long-term risk of first bleeding. An HVPG reduction > 10% from baseline is the best target to define response in primary prophylaxis.

Current endoscopic therapy of variceal bleeding.

Variceal ligation has proved more effective and safer than sclerotherapy and is currently the endoscopic treatment of choice for oesophageal varices. In acute bleeding, vasoactive drugs should be started before endoscopy and maintained for 2-5 days. The efficacy of drugs is improved when associated with emergency endoscopic therapy. Antibiotic prophylaxis should also be used. To prevent rebleeding, both endoscopic ligation and the combination of beta-blockers and nitrates may be used. Adding beta-blockers improves the efficacy of ligation. Haemodynamic responders to beta-blockers+/-nitrates (those with a decrease in portal pressure gradient HVPG to <12 mmHg or by >20% of baseline) have a marked reduction in the risk of haemorrhage and will not need further treatment. Beta-blockers significantly reduce the risk of a first haemorrhage in patients with large varices, and they improve survival. As compared to beta-blockers, endoscopic ligation reduces the risk of first bleeding without affecting mortality, and should be used in patients with contraindications or intolerance to beta-blockers.